工资“拉力”与城市劳动力流入峰值——基于“推拉”理论的中国经济实证

The Wage Pull and the Peak of Labor Force Inflow into the City:the Empirical Study of China's Economy Based on the Push-Pull Theory

本文采用2004—2009年全国284个城市的面板数据,依据人口迁移的"推拉"理论对我国劳动力要素流动问题进行了整体样本与分样本的实证研究。从实证的结果来看,我国城市工资水平对劳动力要素流入的拉力在整体上呈现递减状态,也即工资水平的提高不能带来劳动力供给的无限增加,劳动力数量同工资水平之间的倒U关系使得劳动力流入城市的数量在理论上有个峰值。同时城市分样本估计告诉我们,低收入城市与高收入城市的工资水平对劳动力要素的拉力是不同的,高收入城市已经进入了工资拉力递减的倒U状态,而低收入城市则处于工资边际效用递增阶段,因此对高收入与低收入城市的城市化政策应该是有差异的。同时本文的研究也引发了我们对城市的生产力峰值与劳动力要素流入峰值的协调性思考。

On the basis of the Push- Pull Theory of population migration, this paper, with the panel data from 284 cities in China from 2004 to 2009, conducts empirical study of the entire sample and sub - sample of the labor migration in China. The results indicate that as a whole the pull of urban wage level on labor force inflow into the urban area is on the decrease, which means the growth of wage level will not necessarily bring infinite labor force supply. According to the relation of inverted U pattern between the quantity of labor force and the wage level, there is a theoretical peak of the quantity of the labor force inflow into the urban area. Meanwhile, it＇ s indicated from the urban sub- sample that there is difference between the pull of wage level on labor force inflow in high - income level cities and that in low - income level cities. Those high- income level cities have seuled into the decreasing ＂inverted U＂ state of the pull of wage, while the low- income level cities are in a state of increasing wage marginal utility. Therefore, the urbanization policies towards the two types of cities should be implemented distinctively. Meanwhile, the study initiates the reflection on the relatiomhio between the oeak of urban labor force and the peak of labor force inflow.