摘要
文章根据1983～2009年间中美进出口贸易额和同期美国的就业人数的数据,利用协整检验、脉冲函数以及方差分解对中美贸易与美国就业数量的关系做长期动态分析,得出当前中美贸易的逆差局势不仅为美国加快产业升级提供了外部条件,而且对美国总体就业稳定增长也起到积极的促进作用的结论。美国将近年失业形势恶化归咎于对中美贸易逆差过大,与事实不符,其失业率攀升应从本身的宏观经济形势和政策层面找原因。
On the basis of the value of Sino - US imports and exports and employment figures in America from 1983 to 2009, the author makes a long -term dynamic analysis of the relation between the Sino - US trade and employment in United States using the eointegration test,impulse function and variance decomposition. It is coneluded that at present the Sino - US trade deficit not only provides external conditions for the United States to accelerate its industrial upgrading, but also promotes the steady increase of employment in the United States. Attributing the exacerbation of unemployment in America to the trade deficit is not in accordance with the facts. The causes for the rising of the unemployment should be sought in the domestic macro - economic situation and government policies.
出处
《经济社会体制比较》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第5期193-202,共10页
Comparative Economic & Social Systems
关键词
中美贸易
逆差
就业
动态分析
Sino - US Trade
Trade Deficit
Employment
Dynamic Analysis
