人口老龄化是否加剧收入不平等?——基于中国(1996～2009)的实证研究

Does Population Ageing Aggravate Income Inequality? Evidence from China 1996-2009

不同年龄群体内部的收入程度通常存在差异,因而人口年龄结构变迁会影响整个经济的收入不平等程度。文章建立了一个(统计性)分析框架,刻画出老龄化导致收入不平等加剧的条件,并从经济理论和经验证据上说明该条件在中国成立,从而提出假说:中国的老龄化加剧了经济中的收入不平等。运用1996～2009年省级面板数据,以基尼系数衡量收入不平等,从经验上证实老龄化(老年抚养比上升和少儿抚养比下降)对我国收入不平等有显著的正向影响。这一结论表明,研究收入不平等问题时,应注意老龄化这一长期被研究者们忽视的因素,因为它蕴含着与其他因素大不相同的政策含义。

Since inequality differs cross population groups, changing population age structure may have an effect on overall income inequality. This paper develops an analytical （statistical） model to describe conditions under which population ageing could aggravate income inequality, and show theoretically and empirically that the conditions are true in China. Thus, it is hypothesized that population ageing aggravates inequality in China. With Gini coefficient as measurement of income inequality, and employing provincial level panel data over 1996 -2009, this paper confirms that population ageing （i. e. an increasing aged dependency ratio and a decreasing child dependency ratio） is a positive and significant factor contributing to income inequality. This suggests that inequality studies need to incorporate population ageing, as it conveys different policy implications as compared to other factors.