生态足迹与经济增长的定量关系及其社会经济驱动机制--以新疆为例

Study on Quantitative Relationship between Ecological Footprint and Economic Growth and Socioeconomic Driving Mechanism of Ecological Footprint:A Case Study in Xinjiang

选择新疆为典型案例,着重从生态足迹与社会经济的内在关系入手,探讨生态足迹变化的内在机理。首先计算新疆1990-2008年长时间序列生态足迹,应用协整理论和Granger因果检验,分析新疆生态足迹与经济增长之间的定量关系。在对生态足迹的社会经济影响因素进行定量分析的基础上,利用STIRPAT模型建立生态足迹与主要影响因素之间的回归方程,采用岭回归和偏最小二乘(PLS)回归方法对比验证,探讨1990年以来新疆人口、富裕度、产业结构和城市化水平等社会经济因素对生态足迹变化的内在作用机制。最后基于定量结果,提出了调控社会经济因素对生态足迹影响的相关政策建议等。

For a case study of Xinjiang in China, dynamic mechanism of ecological footprint （EF） change was researched from the inner relationship between EF and socioeconomic impacting factors. First, the per capita EF and ecological carrying capacity （EC） in Xinjiang during the period from 1990 to 2008 were calculated and analyzed by applying the traditional EF model. Sec ond, using cointegration and Granger causality, the long-term relationships between EF and economic growth were revealed. The results are as follows：there are stable long-run equilibrium relationships between the EF and economic growth, and the longterm relation was estimated. Then, standard Granger causality was determined and there was unidirectional causality from eco nomic growth and EF. Third, internal relationship between EF and socioeconomic influence factors were further revealed by the quantitative analysis. Last, the STIRPAT model, random form of IPAT equation in environment research field was introduced to research on relationship between EF changes and major socioeconomic drives. The major drives of the EF, which are population, per capita GDP, urbanization, industry structure and energy intensity, were chosen to be involved in the driving mechanism anal- ysis. Ridge regression and Partial Least Squares（PLS） regression methods were applied in the STIRPAT model to investigate socioeconomic dynamic mechanism of EF changes. Based on the findings, we drew conclusions and provided policy implications of the study.