青藏铁路沿线青海境内旬降水气温预报方法研究

Research on Ten-day Precipitation and Temperature Forecast along Qinghai-Tibetan Railway within Qinghai Province

本文利用欧洲数值预报产品和青藏铁路沿线青海境内14个气象站1981年～2010年的旬降水、最高气温和最低气温实况,分析了铁路沿线逐旬强降水、高温及低温灾害性天气的特征,采用PP方法设计思路,以逐步回归为因子分析方法,研制了青藏铁路沿线青海境内逐旬降水、气温滚动预报方程,在2011年7月～年12月进行了业务试运行,并于2012年3月对该方法进行了进一步的完善,结果表明,这种方法对开展铁路沿线旬专题预报服务及灾害防御有一定的实用价值。

By using Europe products of numerical tics of each ten- day precipitation, the maximum te weather forecast, this article analyzes the characteris- mperature and minimum temperature between 1981 - 2010. The data are based on 14 weather stations along the Qinghai - Tibetan railway within Qinghai Province Using PP of designing and gradual returning to analyze, we have developed rotating forecast equation of each ten-day precipitation and temperature. On carried on a trial operation from July to December, 2011, and improved it in March 2012, it is found out that this meathead has certain value in ten - day special weather cast and disaster prevention along the Qinghai -Tibetan railway.