城市综合承灾能力评价研究

Study on assessment of urban composite disaster-bearing capacity

运用突变级数理论,构建了城市综合承灾能力评价指标体系,建立城市承灾能力综合评价模型.并通过对29个城市实例进行分析,实例分析结果与各城市承灾能力实际状态基本一致,显示该方法能利用一个综合反映多因素之间复杂关系的特征指标给出相应的评价等级结果.最后对综合承灾能力进行比较,从中也获得了其承灾能力强或弱的原因.其结果表明该方法应用到城市综合承灾能力评价是可行的.该方法克服了模糊数学法、主成分分析法等主观性较大、计算较复杂的缺点,显得更适宜和准确.

The index system of urban disaster-bearing capability was constructed by the method of catastrophe progression, and urban disaster-bearing capability were evaluated. The experimental results have shown that this method is feasible and reliable to evaluate the urban disaster-bearing capability. At the same time, twenty-nine cities are analyzed, result of which is basically the same. And the method can use a comprehensive reflection of many factors of the complicated rela tionship between characteristic indexes corresponding evaluation results. Finally, the urban disaster-bearing capability was compared, from which the strength or weakness of the disaster bearing capacity was judged. This method overcomes the shortcomings of AHP and fuzzy mathematics, being subjective and complicated in calculation. Therefore, it is more appropriate and accurate.