税制结构、财政支出结构与经济增长——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

The Tax Structure,Fiscal Expenditure and Economy Growth:Based on Empirical Analysis of Provincial-level Panel Data

以我国1999年—2010年省级面板数据为样本,通过经济计量模型,对我国公共财政体制建立以来,税制结构和财政支出结构的调整对经济的影响效果进行检验。结果表明:就资本而言,税制结构和财政支出结构的调整能够显著影响资本产出弹性;就劳动而言,税制结构调整对劳动产出弹性的影响比较显著,财政支出结构的调整对其影响却不显著;就经济总量规模而言,税制结构的调整对其影响效果比较显著,而财政支出结构的调整对其影响效果相对弱些。因此,我国需要进一步对税制结构和财政支出结构进行调整和完善。

Based on the provincial-level panel data in China from 1999 to 2009,this study uses econometric model to test the effect of tax structure and the fiscal expenditure structure on economy growth since the establishment of China’s public finance system.The results show that as for capital,the adjustment of the tax structure and fiscal expenditure structure has significant effect on capital-output elasticity;as for labor,the effect of the tax structure’s adjustment on labor-output elasticity is remarkable,but the effect of fiscal expenditure structure on labor-output elasticity is not obvious;as for the total economy scale,the effect of the tax structure adjustment on labor-output elasticity is predominant,but the effect of fiscal expenditure structure adjustment on labor-output elasticity is weak.Therefore,we need to further adjust and improve the tax structure and the fiscal expenditure structure.