摘要
自从1998年起,中国成品油市场定价机制已经进行了四次改革,市场定价将是未来的发展趋势。但是鉴于现在成品油市场尚处于寡头垄断的市场结构,完全放松管制可能出现无法预料的严重后果,采用基于Agent的计算经济学的方法,建立了基于信念学习的中国汽油市场模型,并重点分析了垄断溢价形成的影响因素,以及消费者的刚性需求和收入约束对消费者福利的影响。通过对不同原油价格水平下汽油市场的模拟,得到了描述消费者生存率的二次方程。通过建立虚拟变量模型,发现当消费者决策受收入约束时,油价、收入和刚性需求对其福利的边际影响都相应变小。模型的结果对燃油税政策的制定有一定的参考意义。
Since 1998,the pricing mechanism of refined oil market in China has reformed four times.Market pricing will be the future trend.This paper uses the method of agent-based computational economics to construct a free gasoline market model.By simulations of the gasoline market at different levels of crude oil price,a quadratic equation which can describe the survival rate of consumers is obtained.Based on a dummy variable model,we find that when the decisions of consumers are constrained by their income,the margin impacts of crude oil price,income and rigid demand on consumer welfares become smaller.
出处
《石家庄经济学院学报》
2012年第4期30-38,共9页
Journal of Shijiazhuang University of Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金(70733005
70701032)
关键词
汽油市场
Agent模拟
信念学习
刚性需求
收入约束
gasoline market
simulations based on multi-agent
belief learning
rigid demand
income constraints
