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捕获-再捕获模型的统计学原理 被引量:7

Statistical Principle for Capture-Recapture Model
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摘要 捕获-再捕获模型由国外学者首创,最初用于野生动物总体规模估计,后来经过改进逐步应用于人口普查质量评估和其他统计领域。为了正确使用该模型,采取独一无二的方法,从试验背景、组格概率和边缘概率之间的关系、组格条件概率、条件多项分布和条件似然函数等方面对其进行全面解读和研究。研究表明:使用捕获-再捕获模型必须遵守三项理论原则:即总体封闭原则、个体同质原则、独立性原则;对实际问题与理论原则之间存在的差距必须做三件事情:即发现实际问题与理论原则之间的所有分歧点、评估各个分歧点问题的严重程度、寻找解决问题的办法。 Capture--recapture model was firstly developed by foreign scholars. It was originally used for wild animal population size estimation, later improved gradually and applied to census quality assessment and other statistical areas. This article undertakes comprehensive interpretation and research it from the experimental background, relationship between group lattice probability and edge probability, group lattice conditional probability, conditional multinomial distribution, conditional likelihood function, and so on by means of the one and only way in order to use the model correctly. Research shows that the use of capture--recapture models must adhere to the three theoretical principles, namely the overall closure principle, individual homogeneous principle and the principle of independence; three things must be done for the existing gap between the actual problems and theoretical principles, which includes to discover all bifurcation points between practical problems and theoretical principles, assess its severity for each bifurcation point, and find a solution to the problem.
作者 胡桂华 廖歆
出处 《统计与信息论坛》 CSSCI 2012年第9期8-13,共6页 Journal of Statistics and Information
基金 国家社会科学基金项目<我国人口普查质量评估方法研究>(10XTJ003) 全国统计科学重大项目<行政记录在人口与就业统计中的应用>(2009LD003)
关键词 捕获-再捕获模型 随机试验 多项分布 最大似然然估计 capture -- recapture random test multinomial distribution maximum likelihood estimation
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参考文献9

  • 1United Nations Secretariat. Post Enumeration Survey Operational Guidelines[-R]. New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs Division, 2010.
  • 2胡桂华.行政记录在人口普查质量评估中的应用[J].徐州工程学院学报(自然科学版),2011,26(3):21-30. 被引量:10
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二级参考文献25

  • 1刘力平.捕获再捕获与捕获移出模型的概念、方法和新进展[J].数学进展,2004,33(5):527-539. 被引量:11
  • 2Cochran W G.抽样技术[M].张尧庭译.北京:中国统计出版社,1985.87-91
  • 3Petersen C G J. The Yearly Immigration of Young Plaice into the Limfjord from the German Sea[J]. Report of Danish Biological Station, 1896(6).
  • 4Lincoln F C. Calculating Waterfowl Abundance on the Basis of Banding Retums[J]. U.S. Department of Agriculture Circular, 1930(118).
  • 5Chapman D G. Some Properties of the Hypergeometric Distribution with Applications to Zoological Censuses[J]. University of California publications in Statistics, 1951(1).
  • 6B6hning D, van der Heijden P. Recent Developments in Life and Social Science Applications of Capture-recapture Methods[J]. AstA Adv. Star Anal, 2009(93).
  • 7BOhning D. Editorial-Recent Developments in Capture-recapture Methods and Their Applications[J]. Biometrical Journal, 2008, 50(6).
  • 8Qian G Q, Li N, Huggins tL Using Capture-recapture Data and Hybrid Monte Carlo Sampling to Estimate an Animal Population Affected by an Environmental Catastrophe[J]. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 2011(55).
  • 9Thandrayen J, Wang Y. Capture-Recapture Analysis with a Latent Class Model Allowing for Local Dependence and Observed Heterogeneity[J]. Biometrical Journal, 2010, 52(4).
  • 10Bartolucci F, Lupparelli M. Focused Information Criterion for Capture-Recapture Models for Closed Populations[J]. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 2008(35).

共引文献19

同被引文献84

  • 1Petersen C G J. The Yearly Immigration of Young Plaice into the Limfjord from the German Sea[M]. Report of the Danish Biological Station, 1896.
  • 2Lincoln F C. Calculating Waterfowl Abundance on the Basis of Banding Returns[J]. U.S. Department of Agriculture Circular, 1930(118).
  • 3Chapman D G. Some Properties of the Hypergeometric Distribution with Applications to Zoological Censuses[J]. University of California Publications in Statistics, 1951 (1).
  • 4Bohning D, van der Heijden P. Recent Developments in Life and Social Science Applications of Capture-recapture Methods [J]. Asta. Adv. Star. Anal., 2009,93(1).
  • 5Bohning D. Editorial-Recent Developments in Capture-recapture Methods and Their Applications[J]. Biometrical Journal, 2008,50(6).
  • 6Qian G Q, Li N, Huggins R Using Capture-recapture Data and Hybrid Monte Carlo Sampling to Estimate an Animal Population Affected by an Environmental Catastrophe[J]. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis,2011,55(1).
  • 7Thandrayen J, Wang Y. Capture-recapture Analysis with a Latent Class Model Allowing for Local Dependence and Observed Heterogeneity [J]. Biometrical Journal, 2010,52(4).
  • 8Bartolueci F, Lupparelli M. Focused Information Criterion for Capture-recapture Models for Closed Populations[J]. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 2008,35 (4).
  • 9Anagnostopoulos I. A Capture-recapture Sampling Standardization for Improving Internet Meta-search[J]. Computer Standards &Interfaees, 2010,32 (1/2).
  • 10Andrew Keller Tyler Fox. 2010 Census Coverage Measurement Estimation Report: Components of Census Coverage for the Household Population in the United States[R]. Washington, DC:U. S. Bureau Census, 2012.

引证文献7

二级引证文献45

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