基于因子分析的安徽省水资源承载力评价

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Anhui Province Based on Factor Analysis

随着水资源短缺和水污染问题的加剧,水资源供需矛盾日益突出,水资源承载力已成为衡量区域可持续发展的一项重要指标。为了探索安徽省水资源承载力状况,运用因子分析法,选取15个指标,建立了水资源承载力指标体系,对安徽省的水资源承载力进行综合评价,并分析了其时空分布特征。结果表明:人口情况、社会经济状况、水资源开发利用程度是影响安徽省水资源承载力的主要因素。近年来,随着经济的发展、人口的增长,用水量显著增大,安徽省水资源承载力呈现出明显的下降趋势。从空间上来看,安徽省内的水资源承载力存在明显的地区差异,安徽北部的水资源承载力低于南部,这主要与地区经济发展、人口和水资源利用情况有关。为了保证安徽省社会经济的可持续发展,有必要合理利用水资源,节约用水,加强对水资源的治理及保护。

As the problems of water resource shortage and water pollution become more and more serious, the conflicts between water resources supply and demand is increasingly obvious. The carrying capacity of water resources has been regarded as a significant indicator in evaluating the regional sustainable development level. In order to explore the water resources carrying capacity in Anhui province, the factor analysis method is used to establish evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity by selecting 15 indexes to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province and analyze its spatial and temporal characteristics. The results show that the demographic situation, socio-economic status and water resources exploitation and utilization degree are the main factors affecting water resources carrying capacity. With the rapid development of economy and population, the water consump- tion has increased significantly, and the water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province shows obvious decreasing tendency in these years. From the aspect of space, the water resources carrying capacity shows obvious region differences among 17 cities. The water resources carrying capacity in northern Anhui is lower than that in southern Anhui, which is mainly due to the economic development, population and water resources utilization of cities. In order to ensure sustainable socio-economic development, it is necessary to reasonably and efficiently utilize the water resources, save water and strengthen the governance and protection of water resources.