土地流转对农村剩余劳动力数量影响的研究

Freely Rural Land Transfer,Marginal Revenue of Labor and The Quantity of Rural Surplus Labor

当前关于中国农村剩余劳动力数量的研究,只关注现状,很少有研究者考虑制度变革可能对剩余劳动力数量产生的影响。本文着重从理论层面分析制度变革可能对我国农村剩余劳动力产生的影响,通过借鉴测算农村剩余劳动力数量的两部门法,构建多元回归模型,研究认为,如果外生制度发生变革——土地可以自由流转,农村将可能再次涌现出3.4亿左右的剩余劳动力。

The current studies about the quantity of the rural surplus labors only focused on the status qu quantity o, with out taking into account the effects that the institutional changes will make to the when some institution is changed. The article mainly discussed the possible effects of the institution change on the quantity of rural surplus labor force in theory. This article draws on the methods of two-sector to construct a multiple regression model to conclude that when the exogenous system were changed meaning that the land could be freely traded, there would be another 340 million rural surplus labors.