基于STIRPAT模型的安徽省池州市建设用地扩展驱动因子测度

Research on the Driving Factor Measurement of the Construction Land Expansion in Chizhou City,Anhui Province:Based on the STIRPAT Model

针对安徽省池州市建设用地快速扩展的现状,运用空间分析模型、STIRPAT模型,采用文献分析、对比分析、偏最小二乘回归数理分析方法,对建设用地扩展特征进行了动态分析,并对其驱动因子进行了定量测度。结果表明:①2000-2010年,池州市建设用地年平均扩展速率为3.36%;2000-2005年为1.70%;2006-2010年为4.62%。②人口、人均GDP、第二产业贡献值、社会固定资产投资、人均绿地面积、城镇化水平、非农人口占总人口比例对建设用地扩展的边际弹性系数分别为0.1835、0.0779、0.1320、0.5821、0.3419、0.1939、0.0415。制定土地利用规划,强化土地利用功能分区,严控房地产和工业经济建设用地,明晰发展思路,优化经济结构,适度控制景观用地及城镇化水平,强化政府土地监管是减缓池州市建设用地扩展的主要举措。

In this study, we analyzed the construction land expansion and measured the driving factors by using the spatial analysis model and STIRPAT model, as well as the methods of the literature analysis, comparative analysis and mathematical analysis of the partial least squares regression. The results are shown as follows. （1） The average annual expansion rate for the construction land of Chizhou City was 3.36% from 2000 to 2010, 1.70% from 2000 to 2005 and 4.62% from 2006 to 2010. （2） The marginal elastic coefficient of population, per capita GDP, secondary industry contribution, social fixed asset investment, per capita greenery area, urbanization, and the ratio of off-farm population corresponding to the expansion of construction land were 0.1835, 0.0779, 0.1320, 0.5821, 0.3419, 0.1939, and 0.0415 respectively. Some concrete measures have been taken to slow down the expansion of construction land, including the implementation of land use planning, intensification of land use regionalization, restriction of the land used for real estate and industrial construction, formulation of the development strategy, optimization of the economic structure, regulation of the land used for the landscape and urbanization level, and strengthening of the government supervision. This research can help provide a scientific basis to establish the land use planning and management strategy for the Chizhou municipal government. Moreover, it can provide a reference for the research on the driving factors of prefecture-level urban land use.