水文集合预报试验及其研究进展

Advances in hydrologic ensemble prediction experiment

水文集合预报是一种既可以给出确定性预报值,又能提供预报值的不确定性信息的概率预报方法。简述了水文集合预报试验(Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment,HEPEX)国际计划的主要研究内容,回顾了HEPEX研究进展,分析了对水文预报发展有重要意义的3个HEPEX前沿研究:降尺度研究、集合预报系统研究以及不确定性研究。研究表明,动力-统计降尺度法和高分辨率"单一"模式及低分辨率集合相结合是HEPEX未来研究的方向。

As a method for probabilistic forecasting, the hydrologic ensemble prediction provides deterministic fore-cast as well as uncertain information. The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment （HEPEX） is an international initiative to advance probabilistic hydrological forecast techniques for flood, drought and water management applica-ions. We review three recent HEPEX researches on the downscaling, ensemble prediction system and associated un- certainty issues in an effort to provide a useful platform for the development of hydrological forecasting. The results demonstrate that the applicability of the dynamical-statistical downscaling, and combining high-resolution with ensem-ble modeling system into operational practices, are the main direction for HEPEX future research.