全运会竞争格局的阶段性变化及其成因分析

On Phasic Variation of Competion Pattern and Its Cause of China National Games

运用文献资料、数理统计、归纳等方法,对我国近三届全运会各省市获取金牌项目的数量以及竞争格局进行了研究分析。结果表明:我国全运会竞争格局阶段性变化的规律呈现出马太效应、东道主效应、项目集群和梯度推移四种特点,表现为在一定历史条件下具有特色的发展轨迹及阶段格局。造成全运会竞争格局的阶段性变化的原因主要有:经济驱动、全运与奥运战略导向、优势项目主导、项目布局优化、项目多尖子少。通过对未来全运会竞争格局进行预测,认为:第一集团之间的竞争异常激烈、第二集团内部的竞争趋于均衡。

Through literature research statistics, methodso finduction, taking the number of gold medal which provinces got at the latest terms of China National Games as the research objects, analyzed the completion pattern of events in China National Games. The results indicated that the law of phasic variation of the pattern of the competition presents such 4 features as Matthew Effects＂, ＂host effects＂ , ＂cluster event＂ and ＂ trens-gradient moving＂, shows featured developmet tracks and stage specific patterns under certain historical conditions. The origin of phasic variation of the pattern of the competition presents such as economic drive, Advantage Sports, predict that equalization in one group have been revealed during the development of competition pattern about the completion pattern of events in China National Games.