孟津县历史气象分析及未来气候变化预测

Analysis on historical weather and prediction of future climate change for Mengjin County

利用中国气象科学数据共享服务网已整编的孟津气象站1961～2008年气象数据及IPCC数据发布中心提供的1950～2099年的全球栅格气象数据,对孟津县过去48年的气候变化特征及趋势进行详细的研究和分析,并对未来气候变化进行了预测。结果表明,孟津县年降水量在1984年之前为降水偏多时段,随后波动减少,在2004年之后呈现明显的下降趋势,并无回升迹象。总体上,孟津县的气温变化呈现出上升的趋势,其主要原因是最低温度的显著升高。在未来气候情景下孟津县的降水量、平均气温都将会有所增加,且变化趋势与全国未来气候变化趋势分析结果一致。

Based on the weather data of 1961 - 2008 from Mengjin Meteorologic Station compiled by China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System and the Global Climate Raster Dataset of 1950 - 2099 supplied by IPCC Data Distribution Centre, the feature and trend of the climate change in the past 48 years of Mengjin County are studied and analyzed in detail, and then the future climate change therein is predicted as well. The result shows that the annual precipitation before 1984 is a period with a little bit more precipitation and then is unevenly decreased after that, furthermore, shows an obvious decreasing trend without any evidence of recovery. In general, the climate change in Mengjin County shows a rising tendency; of which the main reason is the significant rising of the minimum temperature therein. Under the future climate circumstances, the precipitation and the mean temperature in Menhjin County are to be increased to a certain extent and its change tendency is just coincided with the result from the analysis made on the future climate change of China as well.