汽油价格上涨对北京私家车使用的影响

The Impacts of the Increase of Gasoline Price on the Private Cars Use in Beijing

应用logistic回归模型,根据对北京私家车主问卷调查所得数据,研究了私家车主开始减少私家车使用的油价问题。结果显示,私家车主对油价的反应主要受收入和行驶里程的影响,家庭年人均收入越高、年均行驶里程越长,车主对油价上涨的敏感度越低;同时利用研究出的模型预测了油价上涨到10元时不同收入和年均行驶里程的车主开始减少私家车使用的概率。

Using logistic regression model, the research has been done on the impacts of the increase of gasoline price on the private car use in Beijing. The results show that the responses from private car owners to gasoline price are influenced by income and mileage. The higher income and the longer mileage, the less sensitive the private car owners are to the gasoline price. In this paper, the forecast also been done to describe the different responses from different drivers when the gasoline price reaches 10 yuan per liter.