基于农业投入的重庆农业碳排放时序特征及减排措施研究

Research on Temporal Characteristics and Reduction Policy Based on Input in Chongqing Municipality

农业越来越成为世界上碳排放的主要来源之一,已引起全世界的高度关注。基于农业投入的化肥、农膜、农药、用电量以及柴油5个方面碳源,测算了重庆市1996—2010年近15a的农业碳排放,结果表明:(1)近15a,重庆市农业投入的碳排放呈明显增长趋势,农业投入碳排放总量增长分为三个阶段:增长率下降的缓慢增长阶段、环比增长起伏的波动增长阶段和迅猛增长阶段。(2)近15a,重庆市农业投入的碳排放强度处于明显增长阶段,增长率达到120.32%;2007年以后碳排放环比增长与碳排放强度环比增长趋于吻合。(3)近15a,农业生产中化肥使用导致的碳排放在整个农业投入的碳排放中始终占据绝对支配地位,但呈下降趋势。农村用电碳排放所占比例仅次于化肥使用的碳排放,且呈增加趋势,由1996年的22.1%增加到2010年的38.69%。农膜、农药、农用柴油的使用导致碳排放量增加,但是在全年当中所占比例基本稳定。最后,立足研究结论,提出了未来重庆农业减排的措施,以期为重庆低碳农业发展提供借鉴和参考。

Agriculture has become one of the main sources of carbon emissions in the world, which has attrac ted worldwide concern. Based on the input of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural plastic films, pow- er consumption and diesel, carbon emissions of Chongqing in recentl5 years from 1996 to 2010 was esti- mated. The results showed that： （1） in recent 15 years, carbon emissions due to agricultural investment were in obvious growth trend, presenting in three stages： sluggish growth stage of growth decline, the fluctuation of growth stage and rapid growth stage; （2） in recent 15 years, the carbon intensity was in obvious growth stage because of agricultural investment, growth rate was up to 120.32%; after 2007, neighborhood compa- ring growth of carbon emissions tended to be identical with carbon emissions intensity; （3） carbon emissions resulting from chemical fertilizer use was overwhelmingly dominant in the whole agriculture carbon emis- sions, which demonstrated the decline trend; the carbon emission deriving from power was ranked the second compared to chemical fertilizer use, and had increased by 22.1% in 1996 to 38.69% in 2010, carbon emis- sions of agricultural plastic films, pesticides and agricultural diesel were growing, but the proportion in the whole emissions was stable. Finally, based on the research results, the future agriculture emission reduction measures for emission reduction policy of Chongqing was put forward in order to provide reference to Chongqing low carbon agricultural development.