近25年临汾市耕地资源与粮食安全动态分析

Dynamic Analysis of Arable Land Resources and Food Security of Linfen City in Recent 25 Years

利用耕地、人口和粮食统计数据,采用耕地相对变化率和敏感度分析模型,研究了山西省临汾市近25a县域尺度耕地资源时空变化规律和粮食安全趋势。结果表明:(1)耕地总面积呈增加趋势,而人均耕地面积却呈减少趋势;(2)耕地资源空间变化差异明显,东西部山区相对变化较大,而中部平原区相对变化较小。东西部山区耕地资源对粮食产量的敏感度高,而中部平原区由于科技水平提高,单产增加,耕地面积对粮食产量变化不敏感。人口数量和粮食总产量持续增加,而人均粮食占有量减少,劳动力资源对粮食产量和耕地面积影响很大。保障粮食安全的主要措施是保护基本农田、提高耕地质量和科技水平等。

The changing trend of land resources and food security in the past 25 years was studied by using land relative ratio and sensitivity degree analysis model, based on statistical data of land, population and grain production of Linfen City in Shanxi Province. The results showed that the area of land in this area had an increasing trend while acreage per capita takes on decreasing. The special change of cultivated land re- sources was significant. The relative bigger change mainly occurred in the east and west of this area where there were hilly region. On the contrary, the alluvial plain regions in the middle of this area showed the smaller relative change. The sensitivity of grain output changes to arable land was enhanced in east and west hilly region than that in alluvial plains. With the increasing of population and the total output of grain, the grain output per capita decreased. Labor resources played an important role in grain production and the area of cultivated land. Food security mainly depends on the protection of basic farmland, improvement of the quality of land, and increasing in the level of agricultural science and technology.