摘要
借助灰色系统理论对新疆2004-2010年肺结核发病率进行研究,建立不同维度的静态GM(1,1)模型与动态等维递补灰预测模型对数据进行模拟和预测.针对新疆肺结核疫情发病率数据,探索建立新疆肺结核疫情传播预测模型,为肺结核防治提供科学依据.
In this paper, we study 2004-2010 annual incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinjiang by means of grey system theory, and build the static GM（1,1） and dynamic equivalent dimensions additional grey prediction model for data simulation and prediction. By analysis of the Xinjiang tuberculosis incidence data, we explore an optimal theoretical model for prediction of the Xinjiang pulmonary tuberculosis epidemic situation, and provide scientific basis for prevention and control of tuberculosis.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第18期96-103,共8页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金(11201399)
自治区第六次全国人口普查资料开发立项课题(012)
