美国传统报业衰退的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Traditional Newspaper Industry Declining in USA

报业广告收入增长率、报业广告额占传统四大媒体广告额的比重、报业广告收入增长率与GDP增长率的比较、报纸数量增长率、报纸发行量增长率是考察美国传统报业衰退与否的五个基本指标,报业资本市场市值增长率和倒闭报纸数量是两个辅助指标。综合考量数据显示:2006年是美国传统报业真正衰退的起点。美国传统报业衰退是需求面、供给面和政策面共同作用的结果,其衰退的事实和机理对我国报业有一定的警示意义。

There are five basic criterions to judge whether the traditional newspaper industry in USA is a declining industry, which are the increasing rate of advertising revenue of newspaper indus- try, the proportion of the newspaper industry advertising revenue in the four traditional media advertising revenue, the proportion of the newspaper industry advertising revenue in the GDP,the increasing rate of the newspaper number, the increasing rate of the newspaper circulation. Meanwhile, the value of the newspaper capital market and the number of the insolvent newspapers are the complementary criterions. After analyzing the data, we get the elementary conclusion that the USA newspaper industry began to decline in 2006. The decline of the newspaper industry is mainlydue to three interactive factors, which are industry needs, supply and also the policy.