海运温室气体减排市场机制的不确定性

Uncertainty of market-based measures for maritime greenhouse gas emission reduction

为研究海运温室气体减排市场机制的有效性,分析国际海事组织(International Maritime Or-ganization,IMO)当前正在讨论的主要市场机制的核心要素;提出边际减排成本是确定这些核心要素的关键;指出技术进步的复杂性、海运燃料价格的剧烈波动、外部成本和执行成本等因素使温室气体边际减排成本存在很大的不确定性.研究发现,实施碳排放交易或国际温室气体基金机制,在刺激船舶所有人进行技术革新方面,因燃油价格、市场景气度的不同,刺激力度不同.当前减排市场机制很不成熟,海运业不应急于推出这些市场机制.充分认识减排市场机制在执行过程和执行效果上的不确定性是国际海运界科学、合理地选择减排机制的关键.

To study the validity of market-based measures for the maritime greenhouse gas emission reduction, the core elements of main market-based measures being discussed in International Maritime Organization （IMO） is analyzed. It shows that the marginal abatement cost is the key point in setting the core elements. It was pointed out that marginal abatement costs feature as big uncertainty because of the factors such as the technological progress complexity, drastic fluctuations of marine fuel price, and external cost and implementation cost. The study shows that the stimulus of adoption of fund mechanism of carbon emission transaction or international greenhouse gas is different because of the difference of marine fuel price and degree of market prosperity in the respect of stimulating shipowners carrying out technical innovation. The market-based measures of carbon emission reduction are immature, so that the maritime industry should not eager to introduce these measures. Being fully aware of the uncertainty in implementation process and effect of those measures is crucial for the marine industry to choose the measures scientifically and rationally.