1952-2011年鄱阳湖枯水变化分析

Characteristics of low-water level changes in Lake Poyang during 1952-2011

利用鄱阳湖区1952-2011年水文监测资料,分析鄱阳湖近60 a来枯水特征及其变化规律;从流域降水、五河来水、长江上中游来水、湖盆形态等方面的变化,探讨鄱阳湖枯水变化原因.结果表明,进入21世纪后的近11 a鄱阳湖枯水程度显著加剧,尤其是近5 a来最低水位不断被刷新;造成鄱阳湖枯水变化的最主要原因是流域降水和五河来水的相应变化,其次是长江上中游来水变化,湖盆形态变化对于近10 a来枯水加剧起到了推波助澜的作用;三峡大坝蓄水以后,长江上中游来水变化对鄱阳湖枯水变化的控制作用呈现逐渐加强态势.

Using the hydrology monitoring data in Lake Poyang area during 1952--2011, the characteristics and variations of lowwater level in Lake Poyang in recent 60 years were analyzed. Possible mechanisms for the variations of low-water level changes in Lake Poyang were discussed, i.e. influences from precipitation within the basin, inflows from the five rivers within the catchment, and from the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, and lake basin topography. The results showed that the low-water level status was aggravating in the last 11 years, especially in the last 5 years, since the inflows from the five rivers were decreased due to less precipitation in Lake Poyang Basin. Secondly, the control of low-water level in Lake Poyang by inflows from the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River was strengthened during the past 10 years, especially the effects were enhanced after the operation of the Three-Gorge Dam.