矿井瓦斯涌出量预测的GM(1,1)模型研究

GM(1,1) model research on prediction of mine gas emission rate

利用灰色系统理论,根据不同时期的瓦斯涌出量数据,建立了瓦斯涌出量灰色预测模型,并通过对发耳矿井的瓦斯涌出资料统计分析,采用了GM(1,1)模型进行预测,选择了合理的误差检验方法对预测结果进行判断,结果表明,该模型的计算结果符合工程实际需要,预测程度较高。

By using the gray system theory, according to the gas emission data in different periods, the paper establishes the grey prediction model of gas emission rate; based on the statistical analysis on gas emission data of Fa＇er Mine, it adopts the GM （1, 1） model to do prediction, and selects a reasonable error inspection method to decide the prediction result. The results show that, the calculated results of the model are in accord with actual requirement of the project with high prediction accuracy.