江苏外来人口集聚规模预测研究

Study on Scope Forecasting of Foreign Population in Jiangsu Provincial

人口迁移已成为影响我国地区人口数量和人口密度的最重要因素。基于地市单元层面,研究"十一五"期间江苏外来人口分布的区域特征;运用固定效应模型,对江苏各地市"十二五"期间外来人口分布的规模进行合理地预测,得出:"十二五"期间,江苏外来人口依然积聚于苏南地区,苏中、苏北地区依然是人口净输出地区;基于上述研究,提出针对江苏区域外来人口流动方向、强度进行调控的政策建议。

Migration has been the most important factor that is an impact on China＇s population size and population density. Based on the cities under the jurisdiction of provincial government, the paper studies the area features of the distribution of foreign population in Jiangsu in the llth Five Year;The fixed-effects model is constructed to predict the foreign population size of the cities under the jurisdiction of Jiangsu provincial government in 12th Five Year. Based on these studies,the policy recommendations that control the flow direction and the intensity of foreign population in Jiangsu area are proposed.