基于VAR模型的人身保险与储蓄的联动关系

Research on the Interactive Relationship between Life Insurance and Savings under the VAR Model

通过VAR模型分析方法,采用2001年1月～2012年4月的月度数据,研究在通货膨胀和利率因素的干扰下,我国人身保险与储蓄的联动关系。实证结果表明,通货膨胀和利率调整均加大了人身保险业发展难度。短期来看,人身保险和储蓄替代效应更明显,人们更倾向于选择储蓄方式应对未来的不确定性,抑制了对人身保险的需求;但长期看,人身保险与储蓄则表现为同方向互动发展。可见,人身保险与储蓄之间的联动关系是复杂的。但总体上讲,人身保险与储蓄之间存在着长期协整关系。

Based on the monthly time series data from January 2001 to April 2012 ,this paper studied the relationship between life insurance and savings under the interference of inflation and interest rates in China, using VAR model. The empirical result showed that inflation and interest rate adjustment increased the difficulty of life insurance developments. In the short term, the substitution effect would be more obvious between life insurance and savings, and people were more inclined to choose savings to deal with the uncertainty of the future which restricted the demand for life insurance. In the long term, life insurance and savings would develop in the same direction. To conclude,life insurance and savings had a complex relationship, but generally speaking, there existed a co-integration relationship between them.