保险业周期性波动风险及逆周期监管文献述评

Cyclical Fluctuations and Anti-cyclical Regulation in Insurance Industry:A Literature Review

与经济周期类似,保险业经营波动也呈现一定周期性。对国内外相关文献梳理后认为,国外注重研究"承保周期",主要集中在解释其产生原因,验证其在各国保险业的存在性;国内学者则在验证非寿险市场承保周期存在性的基础上,开始分析经济周期对保险市场波动的影响。总体而言,对保险业周期性波动的"整体性研究"较多,欠缺"结构性研究"。此外,在保险逆周期监管研究方面,现有文献侧重逆周期监管的必要性研究和监管措施研究,尚未对逆周期监管的两个难点有所突破。未来我们至少可以在以下三个方面作进一步探索:研究重点应侧重"保险周期"而非"承保周期";分析保险周期与经济周期的波动形态差异和结构性差异;加强逆周期监管的"预见性"和"适度性"研究。

Just like the economic cycle, there is also a periodic fluctuation in the insurance industry. After reviewing the literature, it is found that underwriting cycle is emphasized by researchers in developed countries who mainly focus on explaining the causes of the cycle and verifying its existence in various countries. Chinese researchers mainly study the impact of economic cycle on insurance fluctuations after having verified the existence of underwriting cycle in the non-life insurance market. On the whole, there is more ＂holistic research＂ than ＂structured research＂ on insurance fluctuations. Furthermore ,researchers focus on the necessity of anti-cyclical regulation and the regulation tools. No breakthrough has been made on the two diffieuhies regarding anti-cyclical regulation. Perhaps the three points we should attach importance to in future studies are：＂ insurance cycle＂ instead of ＂underwriting cycle＂, the difference in fluctuation patterns and structures between the insurance cycle and the economic cycle, and the ＂foresightedness＂ and ＂moderation＂ about anti-cyclical regulation.