资源型区域碳排放影响因素分析——以山西省为例

Decomposition Research about the Carbon Emissions of Shanxi Based on LMDI

碳排放问题是应对气候变化的主要问题,更是困扰资源型区域改革与可持续发展的关键性问题。以山西省为例,采用LMDI分解方法,将碳排放分解为5种影响因素,对山西省碳排放趋势和变化、影响因素做了深入探讨。结果表明:1)山西省未来碳排放增速减缓,排放量将持续增加,生态环境压力进一步加大;2)能源结构效应为负向影响,虽效应值较小,但潜力巨大。而人口规模正向效应值缓慢变大需要关注;3)在产业结构效应方面,工业、交通运输仓储邮政业及批发零售住宿餐饮业部门产业效应为正效应,且有逐年增大的趋势。表明第二产业和第三产业内部结构不合理,产业结构优化有待提高。

Carbon emission is the main problem to responding to climate change and is the key question for some resource-depleting regions. As a coal resource base, the process of transfering economic development in ShanXi is difficult. How to promote sustainable development of economy and society is the significant issue in ShanXi. This paper attempts to study five influnce factors about carbon emissons in ShanXi with Logarithmic Mean Weight Divisia Index（LMDI）.The results show that：l） In the forseeable future, the carbon emission of ShanXi province is increasing quickly, which will impese greater pressure to the enviornment; 2）The contribution rate of economic development to carbon emissition increases quickly, population scale, energy stucture, industrial stucture are also affecting the carbon emissions; 3）Different department has different effects to carbon emission.