产业转移背景下的财政支出与服务业发展--基于28个省市面板数据的经验分析

Fiscal Expenditure and Service Development in the Background of Industries Transfer——An Empirical Research Based on Panel Data from 28 Provinces

笔者通过建立动态面板数据模型,用中国28个省市1990年～2010年的数据,检验了财政支出对服务业发展的影响。结果显示,财政支出对服务业发展具有正向作用。从省际层面来看,支出效应具有滞后性和深度扩张性,财政分权效果明显;从区域层面来看,各类地方支出在不同地区对服务业发展的作用弹性不同。为调整产业结构加快区域经济发展,产业转移相关地区应根据实际情况调整支出政策。

Based on the data from 1990 to 2010 of 28 provinces in China, this paper tests the fiscal expenditure effect on services sector by Dynamic Panel Data Model. The results show that fiscal expenditure has positive effect on services development. From provincial level, financial expenditure accelerates services development with hysteresis qualities and deep dilation. Fiscal decentralization has significant positive effect. From regional level, local services development differs with various financial expenditure. Related areas of industries relocation should change expenditure policy to adjust the industrial structure and accelerate regional economic development according to the situation.