浙江省水库溃坝损失评估模型研究

Economic Loss Estimation Model for Dam Failure in Zhejiang

针对浙江省经济社会发展现状,探索合适的溃坝洪水经济损失评估模型。对现行公式作了修正,并进行概化与合理假设,建立了简单实用的损失率计算方法;以区域经济、人口、地形数据为基本输入,通过与溃坝洪水演进模型结合,获取网格单元上的水力学参数值,包括水深、淹没历时和最大流速,进行经济损失的评估。以杭州市余杭区青山水库为例,采用2008年的经济统计数据,计算分析了水库溃坝对下游地区造成的经济损失,结果表明总损失为2008年总产值的20%左右。该经济损失评估模型可用于浙江省水库的风险管理分析中,为相关部门决策提供依据和参考。

A mathematical model based on the local socio-economic development of Zhejiang was discussed to assess eeonomic loss of dam failure floods. With variations of some loss estimation formulae, this model makes reasonable assumptions and utilizes a simple practical method to establish the loss rate. Using regional economy, population, and geography data as main input, it is then integrated with the dam-break flood routing model to acquire the hydraulie parameters, including depth, duration and velocity, and then to estimate tile economic loss. As an example, the economic loss caused by dam failure of Qingshan Reservoir at Yuhang District in Hangzhou was evaluated, using the official statistics of 2008. The resuh showed that total economic loss was about 20% of the GDP in Yuhang. This model has big potential to be applied in other places of Zhejiang after making some modifieations, providing technical support for decision makers.