“十二五”期间城市住房的需求量研究——以山西省为例

Research on City Housing Demand During the "12th Five-year" Plans——With Shanxi Province as an Example

我国城市住房建设存在房地产功能错位,供应结构严重失衡,住房保障体系建设不完善,保障措施落实不到位等问题。以山西省城市住房建设为例,采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,提出预测城市住房保障家庭收入保障线和计算保障量的方法。在此基础上,求得"十二五"期间城市分类家庭年收入、需要住房保障的家庭户数的比例,以及公共租赁住房、城市和国有工矿棚户区改造和各类商品房的需求量,得出山西省城市"十二五"期间各年各类住房需求量以及总需求量,并对住房保障规模的主要影响因素进行分析。算例表明:预测模型和各类住房所占比例对我国中西部地区城市住房规划有一定的借鉴意义。

There are many problems in China＇s construction of urban residential housing,such as the dislocation of real estate function, the serious imbalance of supply structure,the imperfectness of the housing guarantee system and the safeguard mechanisms and so on. Using the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method, this paper takes Shanxi Province＇s urban housing construction as an example and provides the measure methods of urban family income line for housing safeguard and urban guarantee housing quantity. Based on this ,the paper reaches the results of the year income of classified city families ,the proportion of families needing housing safeguard, the demand quantity of the public rental housing, the urban and state-owned mining shanty town transformation and commercial houses during＂the 12th five-year＂period. Finally, the paper puts forward the demand of different kinds of houses each year and aggregate demand in the cities of Shanxi during ＂the 12th five-year＇period,and then it analyzes the main factors influencing the housing safeguard scale,which have certain significanc for China＇s western region city housing planning.