大型公共项目风险结构分析

The Application of Risks Structure Analysis in Large-scale Public Project

大型公共项目结构的复杂性导致其风险系统的复杂性,主要体现在风险影响因素众多、风险之间的影响关系错综复杂以及风险结果影响大三个方面。一是在风险原定义基础上给出了大型公共项目风险的定义并对其特性进行分析。二是从项目本身性质、项目参与方以及项目环境三个方面统一大型公共项目风险指标体系。三是通过结构分析法确定了大型公共项目风险系统中的变量关系,从而将大型公共项目复杂的风险系统结构化,形成了直观的风险形成路径图;继而基于风险结构分析的结果,通过风险因素依赖图将风险变量划分为四种类型,提出了相应的风险管理建议。算例验证了分析模型的操作性,也说明大型公共项目风险系统的复杂维度是可以通过结构性方法降低的,可以为相应的风险管理提供参考性路径依据。

The structure complexity of large-scale public projects leads to the complexity of the risk system,which is reflected in multiple risk factors, complex relations between risk factors and the larger impact of risk results. First, on the basis of the original definition of risk, this paper put forward the risk definition of large-scale public projects and analyzed its characteristics. Second ,it unified index system from the nature of the project itself,project participants and the project environment. Finally, it determined the risk variables relationship in large-scale public project and made intuitive risk path diagram by structural analysis. Based on the research results,the paper divided the risk factors into four types by dependence graph,and proposed suggestions on risk management. The operability of the model was verified by example demonstration, which showed that this method could reduce the risk of the complexity of the system dimension and provide reference path basis for related risk management.