集市模型:少数者与多数者博弈演化分析

Fair Model: an Evolutionary Analysis of the Minority and Majority Game

为比较主体不同行为策略对社会经济复杂系统演化的影响,基于酒吧模型提出了多数者博弈的集市模型A和少数者-多数者混合博弈的集市模型B。采用多主体建模方法,引入了主体的预期规则、策略选择、学习与适应等微观机制,模型模拟结果展现了人类社会系统所独有的预期的自我实现和/或自我毁灭现象。文章着重讨论了主体预期、行为策略对稳态参与人数均值的影响,发现主体的行为策略是决定系统演化结果的关键因素。

In order to study the influence of agents＇ different action strategies on the evolution of social economic system, this paper puts forward a fair model A and a fair model B inspired by the E1 Farol Model. Agents prefer to stay in the majority side in fair model A and they play mix-game in fair model B. We build agent-based models and introduce the microscopic mechanisms of expec- tation rules, strategy choice, learning process and adaptive behavior. The results show the emer- gent phenomena ＇self fulfillment of expectation＇ and ＇self destroying of expectation＇, which are unique to the human society. We emphatically discuss the impacts of expectation rules and action strategies on the long-time behavior of the three models as indicated by the convergence of the mean attendance in different parameters setting. We find that action strategy is a crucial factor in determining the system stable state.