西北贫困地区环境经济系统物质流分析——以甘南藏族自治州为例

Material flows analysis of the environmental-economic system in northwest poverty-stricken areas:a case study of Gannan autonomous prefecture

综合运用物质流分析方法和IPAT分解框架,核算和分析了2000-2008年甘南州环境经济系统的物质流动及其影响因素.结果表明:研究时段内物质需求总量、直接物质输入量和区域内直接物质输出量分别以年均19.5%,14.6%,19.4%的速度增长,到2008年分别达到了1 220.79,487.88,54.2万吨,年均增长速度均超过了同期12.1l%的GDP年均增速;物质消耗总量和物质消耗强度也分别以年均8.6%和14.04%的速度增长,而物质生产力提升缓慢且水平与发达地区相比有很大差距;隐藏流比重维持在60%～75%,生态包袱较重.IPAT分解框架得到的分析结果显示,影响直接物质输入和区域内直接物质输出变化的根本因素分别是物质利用效率和物质输出效率,即科学技术水平的高低成为影响环境压力的决定性因素.

The material input and output of Cannan autonomous prefecture from 2000 to 2008 were analyzed using material flow analysis （MFA） and the IPAT model and the results show that, during the period of study, the total material requirement, direct material input and domestic processed output rose persistently at mean annual rates of 19.5%, 14.6% and 19.4%, which reached respectively 1 220.79×104 t, 487.88×104 t and 54.2×104 t in 2008. The total material consumption and intensity of material consumption also increased at a mean annual rates of 8.6% and 14.04%. The material productivity increased slowly and showed a big gap with developed areas. The proportion of the hidden flow had been maintained at between 60% and 75%. The results of IPAT show that the material use efficiency was the primary factor, which affected the changes in the direct material input, and the material output efficiency determined the domestic processed output changes. It indicates that the scientific and technological level is a primary factor, which greatly influences environmental pressure.