济宁市年水资源短缺程度的模糊综合评判

THE WATER SHORTAGES DEGREE OF JINING CITY IN THE METHOD OF FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION

运用模糊综合评判方法及多因素评判指标，对济宁市2009年水资源短缺程度及短缺原因进行了比较全面的分析．为全面地描述济宁市水资源供需状况和短缺程度，采用了4类12个指标共同组成整个区域供需分析的指标体系，从不同角度反映济宁市水资源供需状况和短缺程度．评价结果为：济宁市目前的水资源状况总体上轻微短缺，短缺的主要原因是水资源分布不均，并且人口密集，万元GDP需水量耗水量过大引起的，有些区域存在水资源浪费的现象．

By using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and multiple factors of evaluation indexes, the shortage degree of water resources of Jining and the reasons for that are comprehensively analyzed. In order to fully describe the area of the water supply and demand condition and the shortage degree, a series of indexes from different angles must be adopted, and needed by the comprehensive evaluation analysis of water supply and demand, which reflects regional supply and demand of water resources in the whole region. According to the specific circumstances of Jining city, four classes of 12 indexes were evaluated. The results of evaluation are that Jining city is a little lack of water. The main reasons are as followings ： first, it is the uneven distribution of water. Second, it is due to the large number of population. Third, the excessive water consumption to make GDP rise is too large, last but not least, there are also some places wasting the valuable water.