济南城市发展预测研究

PREDICTION OF JINAN ON THE CITY DEVELOPMENT

笔者通过对济南城市发展历史的研究，剖析城市发展的影响因素，如地形、交通等．选择SLEUTH模型，借助GIS、RS技术，对未来济南城市增长进行模拟，得到了济南未来2015年、2020年、2030年的城市中长期发展预测图，并通过与现实数据的比较验证了SLEUTH模型预测的精度．最后，针对济南未来发展存在的问题提出了浅见．

We analyze influence factors in the city development, such as topography, traffic etc, relying on the research of the city development history about Jinan , chooses the SLEUTH model and uses RS＆GIS to simulate the future of Jinan city growth, and gets the city development forecast map in 2015,2020,2030. The accuracy of prediction of the SLEUTH model is verified with the comparison between the prediction and the reality. Finally some recommendations on the problems about the future development of Jinan are out forward.