基于可变模糊集理论的地铁施工风险损失研究

Risk Loss Research in Metro Construction Based on Variable Fuzzy Set

通过汇总大连地铁近期发生的施工事故,对地铁施工事故发生原因进行分析;基于模糊模式识别交叉迭代模型并结合可变模糊集理论,在对地铁施工阶段风险因素识别的基础上,将模型应用到风险损失等级评价中。结合实例,对大连地铁工程潜在风险损失等级进行量化。针对不同风险等级给出相应的风险处置对策和控制方案,为以后的地铁施工风险分析和风险管理提供有益的借鉴和参考。

This paper describes the causes of construction accident and necessity of risk management in metro construction by summarizing the construction accident of Dalian Metro. Based on risk identification during construction stages, a model, which is combined fuzzy pattern recognition with variable fuzzy set, is utilized to make a grade evaluation of risk loss. According to the analysis results, pertinent methods for risk control are given for different risk level calculated by the frequency and consequence. It will offer beneficial references and experiences for risk analysis and management in metro construction.