基于元胞自动机复合模型的村镇土地利用变化模拟

Simulation on land use change in towns and villages based on the compound CA model

为向村镇土地利用规划和管理提供合理决策依据,开展村镇土地利用空间格局变化进行模拟研究。在元胞自动机模型基础上,引入马尔科夫模型和多标准评价方法,构建元胞转移数量规则及空间位置规则,从自然环境、社会经济与政策等3方面分析土地利用影响因子,构造元胞自动机复合模型;选取北京市房山区为研究区,以村镇为单元对其土地利用空间格局进行模拟。结果显示:房山区的耕地、林地面积不断减少,建设用地占用农用地现象突出;人口集中、农业资源丰富的平原区各村镇土地利用变化明显。研究表明,多标准评价方法使元胞转移空间位置有规律可循,并有效避免模拟结果中大量错误斑点的产生;以村镇为单元进行分析,模拟的结果更加精细和合理。

In order to provide important information for decision-making of land use planning,the simulations of land use change were made for towns and villages.In this paper,a compound CA model was presented based on cellular automata model,Markov model,and the method of multi-criteria evaluation.Quantitative rule and spatial rule of land use change were defined and three aspects of land use change factors including natural environment,social economy and land use planning were analyzed in this model.With the model,the simulations of land use change in Beijing’s Fangshan District were performed by taking towns and villages as the analysis units.The results show that the cultivated land and forest land decreased quickly.Farmland was seriously occupied by construction land.The land use distribution of the plain region in Fangshan District was with high variability.The research indicates that the method of multi-criteria evaluation can effectively avoid lots of mistaken spots in the simulation results.The study shows that the simulation results would be more reasonable when towns and villages were taken as the analysis units.