贸易、汇率与经济增长——对中国发展战略的理性思考

Trade,Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: A Rational Reflection on the Development Strategy of China

近年来,随着中国国际储备和对外贸易摩擦的增加,国内学术界和政府管理部门中反对贸易扩张的呼声此起彼伏。本文从理论与历史的角度分析与回顾了贸易对于一国经济增长的绝对重要性,贸易不仅可以促进分工、冲销报酬递减效应、促进城市化发展,而且还决定了一国在世界经济中的地位及其兴衰。历史的经验还告诉我们,促进贸易发展最为重要的方法是选择一个有竞争力的、能够保持汇率稳定的固定汇率制度。浮动汇率可以用来平衡国际收支,但是却不能用来平衡贸易差额,因为在大多数情况下,贸易差额是由结构性问题造成的。本文的研究表明,贸易是经济增长的原因,有竞争力的固定汇率是贸易得以发展的基本条件。放弃对外贸易,试图用刺激内需的方法来促进经济增长是不可行的,因为一个国家的内部需求只是经济增长的结果,而不是经济增长的原因。

In recent years,with the increase of China’s international reserves and foreign trade friction,there have been incessant arguments from the domestic academia and government administrative departments against the expansion of trade.The paper reviews,from the theoretical and historical perspective,the absolute importance of the trade for the economic growth of a country.Trade not only promotes the division of labor,offsets the effect of diminishing returns,and promotes the development of urbanization,but also determines the status of one country and its rise and fall in the world economy.Historical experience also shows that the choice of a competitive and stable fixed exchange rate is the most important way to promote the development of trade.The floating exchange rate can be applied to balance international payments,but it cannot be utilized to achieve the balance of trade,because in most cases,the balance of trade is caused by structural problems.The study suggests that trade is the engine of economic growth,and the competitiveness of the fixed exchange rate is an essential prerequisite for the development of trade.It is not feasible to promote economic growth by giving up foreign trade and trying to stimulate domestic demand,because the internal demand of a country is rather a result than an impetus of its economic growth.