基于概率分布的长江干线水上交通事故分析

Analysis of Traffic Accidents on the Yangtze River Trunk Line Based on Probability Distribution

为深入探寻水上交通事故在时间和空间上的规律性,对2006-01/2010-06有记录的长江干线水上交通事故数据进行统计分析,得出长江干线碰撞和搁浅事故占总事故的80%以上。以10d为1个统计周期,通过对所有周期内发生事故数量分别用正态分布和对数正态分布拟合,发现对数正态分布能够更加准确地描述事故发生规律。另外,长江下游月平均事故数最多为15起;长江中游发生事故的波动性最大。研究结果对管理人员准确评估水上交通的总体安全形势,以及对长江干线事故应急和搜救资源的合理布置和调度具有参考作用。

For exploring maritime accident regularity in terms of time and space, the recorded accident data of the Yangtze river trunk line from January 2006 to June 2010 are analyzed statistically. The analysis shows that the grounding accidents account for over 80 % of the total accidents. For given statistical cycle of 10 days, the accidents as the function of cycles are fitted by normal and lognormal distributions. It is found that lognormal distribution can better represent the accident regularity. Accidents happen most in the downstream with an average of about 15 times per month, and fluctuate most widely in the middle stream. The study achievements can be a reference for maritime administrators to assess traffic safety situation correctly, to allocate and to dispatch emergency and rescue resources rationally along the Yangtze river trunk line.