中日韩三国人口老龄化比较

A Comparison of Population Aging among China,Japan and South Korea

中国、日本、韩国的老龄化有很相似的规律性。1950年以来三国老龄化指数上升幅度之大世界少见,其中老年人口高龄化尤为严重。三国人口老龄化主要因为生育率下降,同时伴随死亡率的下降尤其是高年龄人口死亡率的下降。人口严重老龄化导致老年人口负担急骤增加,退休人员数量逐年上升,养老问题日益突出,最终将影响亚洲地区经济持续发展。比较研究表明,中国统筹解决人口问题应将生育控制和老年安全放在"少子(女)高龄化"的框架里思考人口发展出路,必须尽早确定"适度的低生育率"并在政策和制度上及早安排实现适度低生育率的路径选择,继续完善人口和生育政策并重在行动,推进促进老年发展和保障的公共政策建设。

There are very similar regularities in population aging among China, Japan, and South Korea. The big increase scale of aging index in the three countries since 1950 is very rare in the world with an especially severe problem of elderly population aging. Population aging in the three countries is mainly due to the decrease in birth rate accompa- nied with the decrease in mortality rate, especially the decrease in mortality rate of the elderly. Severe aging problem causes sharp increase in the burden of the elderly, increase of retired population over years, increasingly prominent problem of old-age support, and finally impacts on the sustainable economic development in Asia. The comparative study indicates that China should seek a balanced solution for population development through considering birth control and old-age safety in the context of ＂decreasing birthrate and aging. ＂ It must determine the ＂moderately low fertility rate＂ as soon as possible and choose a path to realize the rate through timely policy and institutional measures. It should continue to improve its population and birth policies with an emphasis on actions and promote public policy making for the development and security of the elderly.