基于居民心理感知的不确定性测量研究

The Measurement of Uncertainty from the Perspective of Residents' Psychological Perception

不确定性的测量是研究居民消费行为中的重点和难点,已有的测量方法常由于其对不确定性内涵界定不清、变量单一和适用性差等问题而存在较大的局限性。本文充分分析了已有方法的可取之处和不足,从居民对不确定性的心理感知出发,创造性地用心理偏差和心理偏差率来量化不确定性。通过对我国城镇和农村居民的不确定性感知的科学计量发现:①农村居民的不确定性感知整体上大于城镇居民的不确定性感知;②不确定性感知的波动幅度在1993年之后呈现出下降趋势;③心理偏差和心理偏差率对居民消费的影响虽然同为负向,但对城镇居民和农村居民的消费影响略有差异。

The measurement of uncertainty is the keystone and difficulty of residents＇ consumption behavior research. Existing methods are criticized for their vague definitions of uncertainty, lack of variables and the limitation of implementation. Based on these researches and perception of uncertainty, ＇ Psychological Deviation＇ and ＇ Psychological Deviation Rate＇ have been applied to measure uncertainty initially. Through the empirical analysis of residents＇ consumption behavior in China, several important results are got. Firstly, the perception of uncertainty of rural residents is greater than that of urban residents. Secondly, the fluctuation range of perceptions of uncertainty declines since 1993. Thirdly, the effects of ＇Psychological Deviation＇ and ＇Psychological Deviation Rate＇ on residents＇ consumption are both negative, but slight differences are found either.