吉林省人口发展演变趋势的分形分析

Non-linear Fractal R/S Trend Analysis of the Population Evolution in Jilin Province

建国60余年来,吉林省人口的发展出现了较大的转折,在不同历史时期呈现出不同的特点.本文在对吉林省人口发展过程描述分析的基础上,利用分形理论的R/S分析方法,基于其人口总数、出生率、死亡率、自然增长率等数据,对人口发展演变的时间分形特征进行了实证研究.结果表明,吉林省人口的变动在时间上具有一定的自相似性特征,未来20年～30年间,仍将继续增长。

Since the founding of China, the development of population in Jilin province has demonstrated great turning point, which shows different characteristics in different historical periods. In the paper we firstly analyze the characteristic of population changing. And then by taking the data of total population, birth rate, mortality rate, natural population growth, we make a practical study on the trend of regional population using non-linear fractal R/S analysis. The results show that there is certain self-similarity on time-series of population changing and the population will keep increasing in several decades.