基于小波消噪的年径流预测SPA模型

Annual Runoff Forecasting Based on Wavelet Denoising SPA Model

集对分析(SPA)的年径流预测就是基于SPA原理从同、异、反3个方面刻画预测模型的误差分布情况,利用联系度描述水文预测模型的预测精度,从而建立预测模型。水文序列的多时间尺度和高度的非线性特性,使得建立的水文预测模型精度往往不高。应用小波消噪的特点,利用汾河水库坝下站1959—1983年的资料建立小波消噪的SPA模型,对1984—1989年的丰枯状态进行预测,将水文预测中的单一预测和综合预测结果分别与实测系列进行对比。结果表明,综合预测模型优于单一预测模型。

The annual runoff forecasting of set pair analysis （SPA） based on SPA principle describes error distribution of prediction model from identical, discrepancy and contrary, and the precision by correlation degree, therefore the prediction model was built. Because of the nonlinear and the multi-time scale character of hydrological sequence, the hydrological forecast model had not high precision. Here the characteristics of wavelet denoising were applied to establish wavelet denosing SPA model based on 1959 - 1959 years of data of Fenhe Reservoir Baxia Station. Through con- trasting the single prediction model with the synthetic prediction model of hydrological forecasting and measured series, the results show that the synthetic prediction model is superior to the single prediction model.