灰色马尔可夫模型在火灾事故预测中的应用

Application of Grey-Markov model in fire accidents forecast

在火灾事故灰色预测模型的基础上,引入马尔科夫链预测理论,建立火灾事故灰色马尔可夫模型。该模型解决了灰色预测模型对于随机波动性较大的数列预测精度低的问题。实例计算证明:灰色马尔可夫模型的预测精度高于GM(1,1)模型的预测精度,可以较好地用于火灾事故的预测。

The Markov chains forecast method was presented based on Grey method of fire accidents forecast, and the Grey- Markov model for forecasting fire accidents was built. The model solved the problem that low precision for forecasting of bigger fluctuation and random progression efficiently, The example showed that the precision of Grey-Markov model for forecasting fire accidents is better than that of Gray model and the model can be used for fire accidents forecast.