基于层次分析和模糊评价的井壁稳定预测方法

Prediction Method on Wellbore Stability Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Evaluation

由于井壁稳定的影响因素多而复杂,目前还没有能够普遍应用的井壁稳定性预测方法。在对传统井壁稳定性分析方法研究的基础上,提出了利用黏土矿物理化性能参数预测井壁稳定性规律的模糊综合评价法。在应用过程中对该方法进行了改进:引入层次分析法确定权重,减少了人为因素对模糊评价结果的影响;采用最大隶属度原则分析得出评价结果,增强了预测结果的准确度。在海拉尔地区的应用表明,用该方法预测油气井井壁稳定性可信度高,实用性强。

Because of the complicated affecting factors on wellbore stability,there is no common used prediction method on that.According to traditional wellbore stability analyzing methods,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of predicting wellbore stability principle is developed,which is based on physical and chemical performances of clay mineral.In application,it is modified by using analytic hierarchy process to confirm weight that minimizes the effect by human factors,applying the maximum subjection principle to obtain evaluation results.The application in Hailaer area is successful.