中国纺织服装行业发展及政策——动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)分析

The Development of China's Textile and Apparel Industries and Concerning Policies

在次贷危机、人民币升值、劳动力和原材料价格上涨等多重压力下,中国纺织服装行业发展自2008年以来似乎陷入困境。文章利用动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,首先通过对纺织服装业的发展历史,分析行业的技术变迁路径和扩张原因;然后对比了人民币升值、出口退税和工资上涨的相关影响;最后研究了次贷危机引起的国际需求下降对当下纺织服装行业的影响和未来行业发展趋势。认为MFA取消以后的资源重新配置对中国纺织服装有长期正的影响,具有资本密集倾向的纺织业在危机中可能有足够的承受能力,而服装加工行业将在长期危机中严重受损。纺织服装受到的冲击导致2009年实际GDP增速降低1.3%。虽然2009年中国经济增长保8目标最终实现,但针对未来可能出现的就业问题,建议政府短期内除出口退税外,采用工资补贴政策;在长期保持汇率稳定,避免大幅度升值。

China＇s textile and apparel industries have been caught in a bind since 2008 by the subprime crisis, Renminbi（RMB） appreciation and rise of product cost. Using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） model, the author analyses the causes of industrial expansion and gets a technological growth path. After a comparing between the effects of RMB appreciation, export subsidy and wage rising, the author draws a future pattern of industrial growth and makes some conclusions： resource re-allocation of MFA elimination may benefit China＇s textile and apparel industries for long; the textile industry which has capital intensive momentum may stand firm when facing crisis, but the apparel may be hurt badly in long crisis expectation. The suffering of textile and apparel industries slowed Chinese GDP speed 1.3% in 2009, although Chinese government has achieved its aim maintaining GDP growth at 8% at the same time, wage subsidies to labor intensive and export oriented firms is highly recommended to deal with the emergence of unemployment in the future as well as making the nominal exchange rate stable.