我国卷烟需求预测研究述评

An overview of research in cigarette demand prediction in China

基于经济学视角对卷烟和卷烟需求作了分析,然后对当前现有的卷烟需求预测研究进行文献爬梳并评价,认为未来相关研究应从以下方面改进,1)完善研究方法;2)基于回归模型的卷烟需求预测研究,有赖于确定影响卷烟消费的有效因子;3)基于时间序列模型的卷烟需求预测研究,有赖于未来时间序列的拉长和采取更合理的算法来拟合卷烟时间序列的概率结构。

Current research work in cigarette demand studies in China was reviewed. Suggestions to further advance the work were put forward, i.e. 1 ） research methods need to be improved ; 2） efficient factors on cigarette consumption need to be further determined ; and 3 ） suitable arithmetic to fit probability characteristic of cigarette consumption is important.