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基于ARIMA的电网地磁感应电流预测研究 被引量:1

Short-time Forecasting of GIC in Power Grid Based on ARIMA Model
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摘要 地磁感应电流(GIC)对电网安全运行会带来影响,GIC的分析与预测是近来研究的重点,文中应用ARIMA模型对某一时段内的GIC进行建模分析,挖掘其内在的趋势规律,并运用建立的模型进行短期预测。所建立的模型通过了适应性检验和参数的显著性检验,误差在(8%~21%)范围内,能较好的应用于GIC的预测,为保证电网的安全运行提供理论支持。 At the earth's surface, space weather processes generate Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) in technological net- works. In power networks GIC can cause saturation of transformers, which may even lead to a collapse of the whole network and to damage of transformers. Prediction of GIC could help power networks run steadily through strong geomagnetic disturbances. This paper offers a forecasting technology to model GIC based on ARIMA model, and it was concluded that ARIMA(0,1, (1,2,3,5,6)) can fit better the sample data. Futher to lessen the influence of disasters which caused by GIC in power grid.
出处 《计算机与数字工程》 2012年第9期134-136,共3页 Computer & Digital Engineering
关键词 地磁感应电流 GIC ARIMA时间序列 预测 geomagnetically Induced currents GIC ARIMA time series forecast
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