基于L-R型模糊数的原棉库火灾事故树分析

Fault tree analysis of fire accident in cotton plant based on L-R fuzzy numerals

根据现场实际状况的统计并依据专家经验所提供的模糊信息,在对原棉库发生火灾事故构建事故树的基础上,通过运用系统工程的模糊事故树理论中的尖型隶属函数,对原棉库火灾事故进行了模糊可靠性分析,得出了其发生事故的模糊概率可能性分布;并对各个基本事件的结构重要度进行了分析,确立了影响系统的最主要因素,为预防火灾事故的发生以及对系统进行安全分析提供了新的方法和途径。

Based on the statistics of running condition of field equipment and the fuzzy information provided by experts, the fault tree of fire accident in cotton plant is constructed. A reliability analysis on fire accident is made by using sharp-state-typed membership function of the fuzzy fault tree theory, then the fuzzy probability distribution of the explosion is gained. The struc- tural importance of each basic event is also analyzed, and the most influencing factors are determined. It provides a new way for safety analysis of the system and prevention of fire accidents.