承压类特种设备系统性风险研究

Investigation on systemic risk of pressure special equipment

传统的风险评估或基于风险的检验主要针对设备的失效可能性和失效后果,而失效后果未考虑失效对社会产生的影响和冲击力。同一类型的设备在网络知情人数不同或人们心理承受能力不同的场合发生失效后产生的社会影响力存在差异。本文引入失效事件对社会的影响力修正因素即影响力强度,影响力强度既反映事故等级,又反映网民对事故的关注程度。在传统的风险概念的基础上,由影响力强度对失效后果进行修正后形成系统性风险模型。当事故等级较高,或当一个事故的关注度高,网络知情人数初值增大,影响力强度增大,系统性风险也随之增大。所建立的系统性风险模型很好地解释了同一类设备失效后在不同场合的社会影响力不同的现象。

Traditional risk assessment or risk-based inspection focuses mainly on the probability and the conse- quences of failure, but the consequences of failure hardly considers the impact on society. Social influence of a fail- ure event resulting from a same type of equipment but with the occurrence of the event in the occasion with different network public number and mental capacity is not the same. The risk intensity as a modified factor to discript the social impact of a failure event was introduced, and the risk intensity built in this paper could not only reflect the level of the event, but also reflect the concern degree of the network public opinion. On the basis of the traditional risk description, the systemic risk of pressure special equipment model was developed after the traditional risk of failure was modified by the risk intensity. When the event level is higher indicating a greater social impact, the syetemic risk increases even the traditional risk level is low. However, when the concern degree of an event is high- er and the enviroment is in people-intensive condition, the influence intensity will increase, and thus the systemic risk increases. The model explains the phenomenon well that the failure of the same equipment in different occa- sions has different social impact.